If the Republican Party
rebellious ever succeed in dumping crudely-spoken and Halliburton-stained
Dick Cheney from the ticket, it raises intriguing questions.
Not just who, but how
and when?
Let’s start with the
usual suspects. The GOP would love to ensnare John McCain as VP candidate,
but the war hero and political icon knows he stands too strong a chance of
winning the presidency in his own right in the next eight years to risk
linkage to the sins of the Bush administration.
And Colin Powell as VP
could secure the election for the Republicans, but he and Bush are light
years apart on too many issues for that to happen. It’s far more likely
that Powell will be shown the door by the administration or bow out
gracefully from his cabinet post if Bush is re-elected, rather than serve
as his number two.
So the Republicans
likely would have to settle for a far dimmer star who also is without
significant controversy or scandal in his past. Let’s see; that eliminates
Trent Lott and many other stalwarts of the party’s right wing. That means
we might see a Johnny Whitebread-type like Bill Frist or Dennis Hastert.
Or might Republican
power brokers get really innovative and try a woman candidate? The party
has a plethora of robotic Stepford Wives out there to choose from for such
a gamble, ranging from office-holders at state and federal levels to media
talking heads. Imagine Peggy Noonan writing her own speeches instead of
the patriotic puffery she churned for the Gipper. Imagine Peggy gazing
adoringly at Bush as she walks alongside him to state functions. Imagine …
no, I can’t go on.
What about the how of
VP replacement?
I’ve heard a few
longtime Republican friends muse that the most convenient thing (except
for the vice president) would be for Cheney’s troubled ticker to take its
last tock. They say this in muttered whispers after a few drinks, then
glance about furtively to make sure no one from the party apparatus or
Department of Homeland Security is listening.
Then the GOP could
merrily anoint a replacement out of natural necessity – instead of because
of a rising mire of suspected corruption and fear of what offensive,
bullying tripe Cheney will utter next.
Or could the vice
president actually come to his senses and withdraw for the good of the
party? Nah … this snarling, opportunistic street-fighter will go the final
round for his continued political existence, vowing to take others down
with him if he’s forced out. He’d become the prosecution’s key witness
before falling on his own sword.
And when might the big
bounce occur? If it does happen – and that’s a big if – would it be at the
Republican convention in five weeks or before?
This gets at both the
how and when issues. Some political prognosticators say if it happens, if
must be soon, as long before the looming convention weekend as possible.
Give the fetid air of Cheney’s record a chance to clear before the GOP
gala gets underway. A replacement then can be trotted out for public
review – and hopefully not much scrutiny – either just before or at the
convention, while Cheney is whisked away to an undisclosed location.
Or will the Republican
insurgents continue to build their case against Cheney right up to
convention time, hoping that outrage within the ranks will swell to
sufficient momentum for change?
I don’t pretend to know
any answers to these questions, but speculating on them is fun. After
years of watching fragmentation in the Democratic Party, it’s great to see
cracks appearing in the bulldozing political monolith that the Republican
Party had become.
Dave Casey
